Preparing for the April DPRK Rocket Launch: A Timeline for the Next Three Weeks

Introduction

It is no secret that North Korea plans to launch a satellite in a window between April 12-16, 2012 to coincide with the 100th birthday of Kim Il Sung, the founder of the country. It also plans to use an Unha-3 booster rocket launched from a new space port (Sohae Satellite Launching Station, a.k.a. Tongchang-dong Space Launch Center). The real secret is how North Korea plans to accomplish this task in the nearly three weeks left before the announced launch window. To provide some context on a probable timeline, this article briefly discusses the observed activities leading up to the Unha launch on July 4, 2006 and the Unha-2 launch on April 5, 2009, both from its old Tonghae Test Center.

Commercial imagery and open source reporting has shown that the launch campaigns of both 2006 and 2009 from Tonghae took about 2.25 months. Therefore, if the North Koreans are following anything like their previous schedule, the new campaign should be well underway. Imagery as of March 29, 2012, indicates that preparations have indeed begun. If a launch is really planned, it can be assumed that the Unha-3 and the satellite Kwangmyongsong-3, identified as an earth resources mission, will soon be inside the assembly building.

Previous Launch Campaigns

The first two months of the 2006 and 2009 Unha launch campaigns consisted of moving the rocket stages by train and then by road to Tonghae, which took about one week. The next six or seven weeks consisted of mainly checkout of the rocket and satellite inside the assembly building and a visit by Kim Jong Il to inspect the progress.

For the April 5, 2009 launch we can construct an accurate series of events 14 days prior to the test. For this timeline, only the launch pad and horizontal assembly building (HAB) activity is considered, although there were other visible activities.

Both Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un were at Tonghae for the launch and stayed over until April 6.

No Activity (Tonghae)

Third Stage and Payload Stacking in Progress

Full Dress Rehearsal in Progress (Tonghae)

Full Dress Rehearsal in Progress, 37 Minutes Later

Launch Day, 25 Minutes before Liftoff (Tonghae)

In contrast, there was very limited commercial imagery before the launch on July 4, 2006. Also, since this was the first test of the Unha vehicle and the first satellite launch attempt since 1998, preparations took longer.

The time period of pad activity was 26 days, twice as long as the 2009 launch. The one additional factor that could partially account for the longer time on the pad was the reported second Unha at Tonghae, which seems to have been removed by August 4, 2006. (It may have been present to provide a backup should there have been a problem with the primary vehicle. By having a second rocket ready, the North Koreans had a better chance for a successful on time launch. Whether it actually did replace the primary rocket and therefore extended the on pad time is unknown.)

Notional Pre-Launch Sequence of the Unha-3

Given the experiences of these previous tests, there are many indicators that can be used to identify the Unha pre-launch sequence. As the launch window gets closer, the pace of activity at the site naturally intensifies. The five day window probably means that the Unha-3 will be ready to launch on April 12, but to accommodate weather, potential technical problems and possible VIP schedules (a repeat of the 2009 visit, this time by Kim Jong Un to the launch), the North Koreans have built in another four days.

While they may start moving the rocket to the launch pad a few days earlier—since this is a new facility—based on a notional March 29 start of activities at the pad and a launch on April 12, the following is the probable sequence of events.