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Kim Jong Un’s Domestic Policy Record in His First Year: Surprisingly Good

By
15 January 2013


The year 2012 started with hysterical nationwide mourning for the deceased leader Kim Jong Il. The country was gripped with the fear of abandonment, uncertainty and chaos. But, by the time 2012 came to a close, one could detect hope in the air, and new positive expectations about the future. There was also plenty of public thirst for new information and foreign experiences, and an especially surprising amount of joy and enthusiasm on the streets of Pyongyang, now illuminated by jumbotrons, the multicolor lights of the newly built residential complex on Changjon Street, and the spectacular 2013 new year fireworks. Whatever happened last year in North Korea, it obviously lifted the spirits and hopes of its population, and the leadership led by Kim Jong Un deserves some credit for that.

The paradox is that the more Kim Jong Un sought to eternalize the memory of Kim Jong Il—out of filial piety or to placate his conservative critics—the more he distanced himself from his late father, driving the message home time and again that Kim Jong Il was dead and his memory belonged in history textbooks, not governing daily life. Kim Jong Un was now the reigning king and could do as he pleased to shape the present and future of his country.[1] The most telling example of this paradox was his maiden New Year speech, reminiscent of Kim Il Sung’s long forgotten New Year speeches. Although a large part was devoted to eulogizing Kim Jong Il, the particular way Kim Jong Un chose to do it—a televised New Year Address to the nation—brought an end to the era of faceless joint party editorials published on January 1 every year during Kim Jong Il’s long rule, discarding yet another piece of his father’s legacy.

A Year of Mixed Policy Results

Although 2012 was an annus horribilis for the military, which endured repeated purges and shake-ups, it was an annus mirabilis for the space program, science and technology, as well as sports and culture. Overcoming tremendous adversity, the North’s scientists and technicians successfully launched for the first time an artificial earth satellite in December,[2] ushering the DPRK into the space age. Beating the odds, North Korean athletes set a new record of winning six Olympic medals (four gold and two bronze) in the London games, prompting the leadership to set forth the goal of building the DPRK into a “sports power.”[3] To the surprise of many observers, the national economy picked up steam, increasingly piggy-backing on the Chinese economic dynamo,[4] recording another better-than-expected grain harvest despite severe drought in spring and devastatingly heavy rains in summer,[5],[6] and slowly adapting its anachronistic industrial structure to the modern standards of a knowledge-based society. The North’s health system finally got some leadership attention, probably because of the first lady’s pregnancy,[7] and the long-overdue injection of capital funds and modern equipment, although the public’s health remained poor and badly cared for.[8] The national education system was partially reformed and modernized to better meet the requirements of the digital age.[9]

Kim Jong Un during the ceremony to unveil the statues of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il on Mansu Hill in Pyongyang, on April 13, 2012. (Korean Central Television Evening News at 0800 GMT in Korean, Pyongyang, April 13, 2012.)

Kim Jong Un also made some progress in implementing one of his first policy priorities, infrastructure improvement, including the repair and expansion of the national road network and air transportation facilities in Pyongyang and all provincial capitals.[10] Whereas his father crisscrossed the nation by train and almost never flew by plane (and therefore the country’s dilapidated highways and airports were left in disrepair), Kim Jong Un prefers to travel by car and likes to fly. Critics say renovating local airports, repaving roads, opening new gas stations, and building new motels and hotels serve only the interests of government elites and foreign tourists. This may be true today but these are long-term infrastructure investments that everyone will eventually benefit from, even ordinary North Koreans who cannot dream about using them at present. It is worth remembering that the US Interstate Highway System was originally built as a network of ground transport routes for military supplies and troop deployments in case of an emergency or foreign invasion.[11]

But on the critical issue of economic reform, while change may have been in the air, in my judgment, the current regime does not yet have any clear understanding of how to restructure the agricultural sector and revive the backbone of the North’s industrial economy—large-scale state-owned enterprises. Nor does it have a viable approach to rebuild the nation’s finances, pay down its debts, and get back to planning for the future. Also, despite Kim’s emphasis on the Cabinet’s centrality in economic management at the expense of both the party and the military, little progress has been made in the way the government directs the country’s economy. Despite early expectations that the new regime would enunciate a comprehensive “New Economic Policy,” outside observers were left disappointed at the lack of serious action on the ground. But too much was also made of the regime’s reported promise of some sort of agricultural reform (the so-called June 28 policy measures) and rumors of new pricing and wage regulations for small-and-medium enterprises, as well as impending monetary reform; all to no avail.

That said, Kim Jong Un’s effort to strip the Korean People’s Army of its economic management role, dismantle its business empire, and hand it over to the civilian authorities was encouraging. It is reminiscent of a similar process that took place in China in the late 1990s when the then President Jiang Zemin ordered the People’s Liberation Army to get out of business, forcing the military to divest itself of a mind-numbingly complex web of thousands of commercial interests that spanned pharmaceuticals, autos, and telecommunications.[12] If Kim Jong Un continues to divest the military of its economic assets and shift resources from the munitions industry to the civilian economy in the coming year, the KPA will lose its economic clout. As a result, the North Korean Cabinet will be better positioned to spur overall economic growth as well as to fulfill Kim Jong Un’s inaugural promise of raising the living standards of the North Korean people in the future.

The regime’s strong interest in promoting foreign trade and investment and developing special economic zones with Chinese collaboration was also unmistakable. This was demonstrated with new vigor when Pyongyang broke ground on the Hwanggumpyong and Wihwa Islands Economic Zone in June and its grey cardinal Jang Song Thaek held unprecedented economic talks with Chinese leaders in Beijing last August. North Korea’s increasing economic exposure to China is important not only because it provides the regime with the economic lifeline it needs to survive, but also because it diminishes the country’s economic isolation, plugging the North into the world’s second largest economy. That, in turn, not only provides it with access to Chinese capital, technology, policy advice and managerial expertise, but also allows Pyongyang to benefit from global economic trends and to pursue a path of socio-economic development largely independent of the ROK, US and Japan and more in line with the so-called Beijing consensus.

Finally, North Korean economic diplomacy scored a major victory last September when Russia agreed to write off most of the DPRK’s USD 10 billion debt inherited from the Soviet era, despite considerable Western pressure on Moscow to show solidarity with international sanctions. The debt restructuring deal was important not only because it cleared a significant obstacle on the way of resuming normal trade relations between North Korea and Russia, but also because it revealed how the new regime prefers to deal with foreign creditors: like his predecessor, Kim Jong Un appears to favor political negotiation and settlement of entrenched financial problems instead of traditional market-based solutions, which does not bode well for the future of the ROK’s outstanding food loans to Pyongyang, let alone its debts to Western creditors.

Kim Jong Un’s Thaw

The Ice Age in North Korea is coming to an end. Although the pace of change is glacial, its direction is unmistakable: the economic engine is warming up, political ice is melting, social mores are relaxing, and the country is beginning to open up.

The key question facing outside experts, however, is whether changes over the past year are just style or reflect a deeper impulse for substantive reform that may take place in the future.  Certainly, any attentive observer of the North Korean domestic scene could have easily detected signs of change—homegrown and imported—blessed by the new leader. They included:

  • New ideological concepts emphasizing populism and nationalist aspirations at the expense of garrison-state communist rhetoric: “great Paektusan nation” instead of “Songun nation,” “people-first” instead of “military-first,” “love the people” instead of “love the party”;
  • New slogans, such as “No More Belt-Tightening” instead of “One Meal a Day,” reflecting Kim Jong Un’s joie de vivre and passion for his people’s well-being; “At One Go” instead of “As Long As It Takes,” reflecting his dynamism and aggressive style; “Great Leap Forward” instead of “Arduous March” and “Forward towards Final Victory” instead of “We’ll Never Surrender,” reflecting his youthful radicalism and high aspirations;
  • New state holidays: Mothers’ Day honoring the memory of his deceased mother and giving its due to the long-neglected one half of the North Korean population, and Airmen’s Day in tribute to his father-in-law and granting the Air Force the honor the army and navy have long had;
  • Revived long-forgotten local customs and traditions as exhibited at the newly instituted national cooking festivals, fashion shows and local daily necessities fairs;
  • Novel public mobilization songs extolling loyalty to Kim Jong Un (“Footsteps” and “We Will Follow You Only”);
  • Eye-popping Spice Girls-style Morangbong Music Band and refreshingly humanistic art dramas;
  • New liberating fashion styles demonstrated by the trail-blazing first lady on central TV and the front pages of the Workers’ Party newspaper Rodong Sinmun;
  • New IT gadgets (almost two million cellphones and Samjiyon-brand PC tablets), high-capacity workstations powering the North’s space program and nuclear test calculations, and high-tech consumer appliances such as Arirang-brand LED TVs;
  • Modern public vehicles (Chinese fire engines and medical emergency vehicles) and luxury personal autos like Hummers spotted in different parts of the country.

Moreover, last year, Kim Jong Un rehabilitated scores of senior government officials punished by his father,[13] announced a national amnesty in January,[14] and reportedly ordered the shutdown of a notorious concentration camp for political prisoners in Hoeryong, North Hamgyong Province.[15],[16],[17] The motives behind these actions are not yet clear: they could have been initiated to erase the evidence of past injustices and atrocities, or they may be early signs of political decompression set in motion by the new regime.

Outside critics say these small steps are not enough to alleviate the plight of the oppressed people, and they are right. But, Kim Jong Un does not operate in a political vacuum: the old regime stalwarts and obvious losers from his policy innovations probably are actively resisting his attempts to dismantle Kim Jong Il’s songun policy and its legacy. Rehabilitating past enemies, allowing a “hundred flowers to bloom,” and riding the North Korean style “Glastnost Express” is new for North Korea and will undoubtedly test the limits of political decompression and the regime’s newly found tolerance of policy mistakes and different views.

Looking Over the Horizon

Looking back at his first year, I must admit that Kim Jong Un beat my expectations, raising the bar to an unprecedented height by North Korean standards. Now I expect his second year in power to be even more dynamic and surprising with bold leadership and policy moves, despite a number of challenges, old and new, that will no doubt test the rationality and viability of Kim Jong Un’s government.

He may attempt to provide “bread and circuses” for the masses in the short-term, but Kim’s populist policy, which appears to be a knee-jerk reaction to the decades of acute austerity imposed on the North Korean people by his predecessors, may not last long, given the lack of domestic resources. Moreover, it could ignite a revolution of rising expectations that will be very hard to meet, and which can quickly spiral out of control. Hence, continued re-allocation of resources from the defense industry to the civilian economy, as Kim promised in his April 15 speech, partial conversion of the wartime economy into consumer-oriented production, continued expansion of economic cooperation with China, and further relaxation of government restrictions on market forces will be critical to sustaining economic recovery despite shortages of capital and labor, and international isolation. In short, delivering on promises of better living conditions for the people will be key to the legitimacy and long-term survival of Kim Jong Un’s regime, as well as instrumental in maintaining social peace between the nouveaux riches and growing ranks of the poor, especially in borderland and urban areas.

At the same time, the new regime is unlikely to continue the “songun business as usual” because it has already demonstrated its intention to dismantle the military-first policy. There is no “songun with human face,” and new leaders in Pyongyang appear to understand that. No matter how much the KPA is asked to “love the people” and “serve the people” by dredging rivers, renovating parks, and rebuilding the disaster-damaged areas, North Koreans will never forget or forgive the tremendous sacrifices they made at the altar of songun during the “Arduous March” and Great Famine in the 1990s. With the passing of Kim Jong Il, the military-first idea and policy is headed to the dustbin of history.

While some observers are quick to assert Kim Jong Un is not a reformer, I believe it is too soon to say one way or the other. After all, he has only been in power for one year. So only the future will tell whether the small but influential changes trickling down from the top and rising from the bottom up will lead to a major transformation of North Korea’s society, economy, and politics in the long run. Some also question whether Kim Jong Un is the central driver of change, arguing that at his young age he does not have enough wisdom or power yet to lead the transformation of North Korea into a better place. Although I still cannot say with a high level of confidence whether he is totally in control or only partially in charge (and over what areas), I believe every important change in the North has happened with his explicit or tacit consent, regardless of whose idea initially it was or who really benefited from it.

I judge that North Korea under Kim Jong Un’s leadership is poised to recover in the next five to 10 years. Not only will the North Korean government be able to “feed, clothe, and house” its own people to their satisfaction, but also Pyongyang will continue to build up its missile and nuclear capabilities, thereby nurturing its domestic legitimacy and growing its international strength. The big question today is how should the United States and the Republic of Korea respond to a relatively more stable, dynamic, self-confident, and stronger North Korea in the future?



[1] These measures included but were not limited to Kim’s declaring Kim Jong Il as eternal General Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea and eternal chairman of the National Defense Commission and enshrining these changes in the country’s constitution, erecting Kim Jong Il’s statues on Mansu Hill, at the Mansudae Art Studio, Ministries of People’s Armed Forces and State Security, and at Kim Il Sung Military University  statues in Hamhung and Kanggye, constructing Kim Jong Il’s immortality towers and mosaics across the country, designating Kim Jong Il’s birthday as the Day of the Shining Star, establishing Kim Jong Il Order and Prizes, minting Kim Jong Il coins and medals, and transforming Kumsusan Memorial Palace into the mausoleum for his father and grandfather.

[2] “KCNA Releases Report on Satellite Launch,” KCNA, December 12, 2012.

[3] “Olympic Medal Count 2012: Standings Table Of London Games Totals By Nation, Type Of Medal,” Huffington Post Sports, August 8, 2012,

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/08/olympic-medal-count-2012-standings_n_1756771.html.

[4] “N. Korea’s trade with China likely to hit record in 2012,” Yonhap, December 30, 2012, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2012/12/30/82/0401000000AEN20121230001400320F.HTML.

[5] “FAO/WFP Crop And Food Security Assessment Mission To The Democratic People’s Republic Of Korea,” November 12, 2012, http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/SRDPRK1112%255b1%255d.pdf.

[6] “NK Harvest Improves on Procurement Price Bonus,” DailyNK, November 13, 2012, http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk00100&num=10031.

[7] “Kim Jong Un Visits Newly Built Breast Cancer Research Centre at Pyongyang Maternity Hospital,” KCNA, November 3, 2012.

[8] “Choe Yong Rim Visits Pyongyang Maternity Hospital,” KCNA, December 30, 2012.

[9] “Ordinance of DPRK SPA on Enforcing Universal 12-Year Compulsory Education Promulgated,” KCNA, September 25, 2012.

[10] Kim Jong Un, “On Bringing About a Revolutionary Turnabout in National Land Management Work to Meet the Demands of Building a Powerful Socialist State—Talk With Chief Functionaries of the Party, State Economic Organs, and Workers’ Organizations,” April 27, 2012.

[11] “Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956: Creating the Interstate System,” http://www.nationalatlas.gov/articles/transportation/a_highway.html.

[12] “China’s Army Under Fire,” Bloomberg Business Week, August 9, 1998, http://www.businessweek.com/stories/1998-08-09/chinas-army-under-fire-intl-edition.

[13] “A Special Amnesty Granted to Six Hundred Government Officials Under Revolutionization Punishment,” Good Friends, North Korea Today No. 456, May 23, 2012

[14] “Amnesty to Be Applied to Convicts in DPRK,” KCNA, January 10, 2012.

[15] “Camp 22 Disbanded on Defection Fear,” DailyNK, September 28, 2012, http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=9865.

[16] “New Farmers of Camp No. 22 Revealed,” DailyNK, October 25, 2012, http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=9955.

[17] Kim Kwang-Jin, “Dial 077 for Hoiryeong Farm,” DailyNK, December 27, 2012, http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=10193. 

Reader Feedback

12 Responses to “Kim Jong Un’s Domestic Policy Record in His First Year: Surprisingly Good”

  1. [...] Kim Jung Un's first year as North Korean leader: 'The Ice Age in North Korea is coming to an end. Although the pace of change is glacial, its [...]

  2. [...] Ri Yong Ho and the elevation of “moderates” close to Jang Song Thaek (enough said about that). Alexandre Mansourov, overlooking evidence of increased domestic repression and the disappearance of 30,000 prisoners [...]

  3. [...] appearance, and court entertainers in mini-dresses and knockoff Mickey Mouse costumes. One, dazzled by the “jumbotrons, the multicolor lights of the newly built residential complex on Changjon [...]

  4. [...] imposed after its most recent missile tests, North Korea seems to be prospering more than it has in decades. While China may be willing to support some sanctions, it is clearly unwilling to crush [...]

  5. [...] that North Korea lags behind its contemporaries in state infrastructure and development.  In an article on 38north.org, it points to the fact that Jong-Un has made infrastructure improvement a priority along with [...]

  6. [...] Writing at 38 North, the last fantasyland of Sunshine’s remaining advocates, Alexandre Mansourov argues that “Kim Jong Un’s domestic policy record” so far has been “surprisingly good.” But, by the time 2012 came to a close, one could detect hope in the air, and new positive expectations about the future. There was also plenty of public thirst for new information and foreign experiences, and an especially surprising amount of joy and enthusiasm on the streets of Pyongyang, now illuminated by jumbotrons, the multicolor lights of the newly built residential complex on Changjon Street, and the spectacular 2013 new year fireworks. Whatever happened last year in North Korea, it obviously lifted the spirits and hopes of its population, and the leadership led by Kim Jong Un deserves some credit for that.  [Alexandre Mansourov, 38 North] [...]

  7. [...] to short skirts and indigenous iPads, suggestions of change have not gone unnoticed by the more optimistic observer. But what if Kim Jong-un and North Korea’s ruling elite at-large are not free to choose a [...]

  8. Bourbon Drinker says:

    Wish I would have read this, and many of the other articles on this site, as they came out. Insightful. Less bias. Nice. I’m with you, I think dude can do whatever he chooses to do. The timing is perfect for KJU to make “big moves”. Personally, would prefer a different way. One with the continued trend of putting people first, but also some deescalation of the nuclear provocation cycle. Bad for all parties.

  9. [...] Alexandre Mansourov wrote extensive comments on the DPRK’s 2012 in 38 North. [...]

  10. Surprisingly good? This, after two missile tests and, so we’re being told today, shortly before North Korea’s third nuclear test? How can any no serious newspaper reader can say this week that North Korea is showing any interest in a diplomatic thaw? Or reform?

    To support his risibile conclusions, Mansourov amalgamates a series of superficial benefits that Kim Jong Un has shared with his sybaritic Inner Party while the other 99% percent go hungry, takes a series of unverifiable regime claims at face value, and ignores the contradictory preponderance of the evidence, which suggests that the regime is increasing its repression of the “wavering” and “hostile” classes.

    With respect to cosmetic changes in Pyongyang, since when has the Pyongyang elite really been isolated from Disney and Prada? These people have long had access to China, to Orascom phones, and to the most expensive imported consumer goods. So what?

    For the vast majority of North Koreans, last year was more repressive than the year before. It has never been harder for them to cross the border, or to learn what’s happening on the Outer Earth. Those overhyped promises of agricultural reform? So far, they’ve come to nothing, as the regime continued to seize crops and confiscate private plots.

    Mansourov should be ashamed of casually tossing out the baseless inference that the rumored closure of Camp 22 is somehow a sign of reform. In fact, the question of whether the camp has closed at all remains a matter of considerable debate among those who pay closer attention than Mr. Mansourov to North Korea’s large-scale crimes against humanity. None — none — of the reports claiming that the camp did close attribute it to any reformist impulse. Rather, the reports hold that Camp 22 was closed because the warden defected, and because the regime concluded that its proximity to the Chinese border made its secrets impossible to contain.

    I somehow wonder if Mr. Mansourov would credit Kim Jong Un as a reformer if, as RFA reported, nearly 30,000 of its prisoners were starved to death before the camp was closed. More credible reports suggest that the prisoners were relocated to other camps, possibly Camp 16. It is the release of the prisoners that would be a true indication of change, not the location of their imprisonment. Or liquidation.

  11. tom pagan says:

    The mystery of the dprk continues. Perhaps, someday all will be revealed. Thank you for this excellent report.

  12. barney fife says:

    The question of new policies etc. is neither here nor there, the regime will carry on aided and abetted by china (and russia) who uses north korea to sap the strength and focus of the west by having to continually deal with its rabidity. The best thing that can happen for the free world is a night of ‘long knives’ in pyongyang which takes out the only fat person in north korea and other stalinists.

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Credit for photo of young North Korean girl: T.M. All rights reserved, used with permission.